Is Single Forecast Method Better than Combined Forecast Method?

Many studies have been done to prove that combining forecast methods gives a better predictive performance relative individual forecasts. This paper compared the single method and combined in predicting time series data. The study used annual oil revenue for period 1981–2019 from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which were divided into two sets: Training Set (TS) covered 1981–2010 Test (VS) 2011–2019. adopted autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear trend (Holt) as methods; it also outperformance forecasts (OPF) weighted mean (WM) weight selection methods. applied after they combined. Two CM1 (ARIMA + SES) CM2 SES Holt) obtained. result this showed (SES) an is less risky than forecasting series.